Invest In Austin

Should you buy an Austin 4-plex?

June 20, 2008 · No Comments

Should I buy an Austin 4-plex?

I often get calls from investors excited enter the Austin real estate market. Without fail, the first thing they want our team to show them is a fourplex (4-plex).

Why?

<place photo of typical fourplex here>

Their reasons are:

  • To benefit from Economy of Scale ( 1 roof, yet 4 streams of income)
  • To minimize the financial impact of vacancies, which would be defrayed by having other occupied units.
  • To save on the front end of the transaction—By purchasing 4 units at one time, they avoid paying the fees associated with several loans and several closings.
  • Buyers can feel like they’re moving up in the investment world. (Bigger is better, right?) They get the sense that they’re just a step away from owning a small apartment complex while still obtaining a standard 1-4 family residential loan. (True apartment loans require large down payments and are often more difficult to obtain.)
  • The own a fourplex someplace else in the country which has performed well for them.

I am absolutely aware of the appeal of these properties, particularly to outsiders unfamiliar with the Austin market. The above points appear to make a well-reasoned argument—certainly it is one that might apply in other parts of the country. But, as a seasoned investor and an advisor to my own clients, I AM ABSOLUTELY NOT a fan of Austin 4-plexes.

There are many reasons for this.

A 4-plex is like an apartment complex with no amenities. It is at the bottom of the rental food-chain for tenants. In a house, tenants have the benefits of homeownership without the maintenance and insurance expenses. In an apartment, they have the security of a community and amenities like pools and gyms. Duplexes represent a step up from apartments for many tenants, providing a yard and fewer noisy neighbors.

But who wants to live in a fourplex? And why?

They are generally arranged in a 2 unit over 2 unit arrangement, like two shoeboxes on top of two other, identical shoeboxes. The bottom 2 units typically lease up fairly easily, but the top units can be difficult to move.

The first warning sign for buyers should be rents: The rents in fourplexes are lower than standard Austin rents for units of the same size. Fourplex rents average between 500.00 and 600.00 per month whereas the average rent in Austin for 1st Quarter 2008 was $907 a month. The tenants in a 500.00 to 600.00 range are very, very low income. They struggle financially and when the going gets tough the rent won’t be paid. Or the property might be abandoned altogether. I’ve seen this countless times.

A prominent local property manger gave a presentation at our office last week, reviewing statistics of different classes of property. He analyzed them by property type, area of town, and rent range. The statistic that knocked me off my chair was that the properties with rents of less than 600.00 a month had a 21% rate of uncollectable rent—meaning the rent is due and it cannot be collected. Yes, that is not a misprint: 21% uncollectable. This is due to evictions and “skip outs.”

Average Price 4-plex

This second graph compares this year’s prices with last year’s prices. As you can see, values have dropped in this area of the market. As the buyers become more educated about the Austin market, this trend, in my opinion, is not likely to improve.

Average Price 4-plex in last 2 years

Sounds expensive, right? But, wait, it gets even more expensive. That 21% loss does not account for court costs, vacancy, damages, and re-leasing expenses.

As a former owner of a property management company which managed 300 small residential units, I always recognized those units as problematic, but I never crunched the numbers like my associate. Seeing them in that format confirmed all of our worst suspicions about these properties.

FOUR REASONS NOT TO BUY AN AUSTIN FOURPLEX:

1. Purchasing an Austin fourplex means investing in a property which appeals only to tenants living very close to the poverty line. This tenant base has almost no financial security, a factor which (in our small sample, anyway) results in a 21% rate of uncollectable rent.

2. The upstairs units will be difficult to rent and will likely have extended rates of vacancy. Vacancy rates of 20% are not uncommon.

3. Many property managers refuse to manage fourplexes, so by purchasing one, you limit your options for finding a property manager you like.

4. Streets with multiple 4-plex units (and they are typically grouped) tend to look trashy and neglected. It’s not unusual to see garbage cans left out on the street all week, litter-covered lawns, and parking lots and yards filled with junk cars. These factors also work as deterrent to better-quality tenants, making it very difficult to ever elevate the status of a fourplex.

5. Constant turnover makes it difficult to keep units in top shape, which means added expenses for fix-up between occupants and increased maintenance calls from tenants during their occupancy.

Of course, there are a few Exceptions to the rule:

1. Fourplexes located in high-demand areas like in the immediate vicinity of the University of Texas or in established downtown neighborhoods can often be easily leased.

2. It can be much easier to lease fourplexes built townhouse-style—in a row with all front doors on the same level, as opposed to being stacked one on top of the other. Again, even fourplexes of this type should be located in a higher-demand area to attract quality tenants

3. Fourplexes which, for whatever reason, have established track records of attracting (and keeping) higher-quality, long term tenants while bringing in higher-than-standard rental income should be given a second look.

<Insert photo of a better fourplex>

What do you do if you currently own a problem 4-plex?

As with any bad investment, you have to cut your losses. My advice is to sell it. In my experience, that’s the only way to reduce your exposure and avoid throwing good money after bad. The investors in this market are not paying retail for this product. The entire market is only moving three 4-plex units a month. Currently there are 30 4-plex properties for sale in the Austin Metro Area. It would take the Austin Market 10 months to absorb the current inventory.

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The Velocity of Money and What it means to the Economy

April 27, 2008 · 1 Comment

This is a big topic for an Austin investment real estate agent to take on. So…… I won’t. But I do find the topic fascinating. Most of us get our economic news from Cable News.

During the build up to the Iraq war– I lost all faith in our “cheer leading” media. I believe that with economic news — the media has their “talking points”.

I found this article By John Mauldin — it is a cohesive argument that is written in terms we can all understand. John put this article together with input from Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management in Austin, Texas. It is an overview of the risks that we face in the US Economy. I am covering it here because investors always want to be able to predict how their investments will fare with the upcoming economic woes.

What does this article mean to the Austin Real Estate Investor:

1. Sellers– if you really want to sell a property, be reasonable now. You don’t need to sell good properties but if you are trying to dump a “dog” -- dump it now or prepare to hold it for another 2 or 3 years.

2. Buyers: — Austin is one of the best real estate markets in the country. There will be plenty of bargains out there. Spend your investment dollars here.  The following photo shows the areas of the country with the highest loan default rate.  As you can see, Texas is faring well compared to most of the country.  The Texas market is stronger than the markets making headlines.


http://www.tradingurus.com/the-velocity-of-money-john-mauldins-weekly-e-letter.html

It’s something to ponder.

 

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Travis County Tax Appraisals for 2008 have gone up 12.5%

April 18, 2008 · No Comments

tax pictureThat is good news for investors worried about the potential of declining values but bad news for taxpayers. 

 Austin real estate is appraised by the Travis County Aprraisal district by a flawed method of appraisal called the “mass appraisal method”.  This has a lot of twists and turns.  I once read a 30 paige pdf on it– It really put me to sleep.  I say a flawed method because texas is a privacy state.  The price that you paid for a property is not a matter of public record. 

When your deed is recorded the appraisal district will  politely send out a notice asking what you paid for the property.  When you recieve it— THROW IT AWAY.  Sometimes new proud homeowners report values to the appraisal district — that then get applied to all the properties within the same section code.  This is far different from a Comparitave Market Analysis  (CMA) that an Austin Realtor will give you.  A CMA takes into consideration the condition of the property, upgrades and other factors. 

If you do not agree with the appraised value– before you protest– call a realtor ( namely Dena Davis) and let me take a quick look at the value.  I will let you know if you have an adequate chance of winning a protest.  You will have to bring in comparables– that support your claim of value. 

One other thing to know.  Some if not all  appraisals that work for the district have real estate licenses.  One time– during a protest– I brought my comps pointing to the lower value and Karlton Sneed, an appraiser for the district sat on his computer and pulled comps that he saw from a higher value. 

So this privacy issue only goes so far.  I dont know if they are supposed to be doing that.  — I doubt it.  But it happens. 

We are always here to serve the Austin investment real estate community in any way we can.  If you are wondering whether or not a property is really worth the appraised value.  Call me 512-473-2444 ext. 2. 

 To read the entire statesman article http://www.statesman.com/business/content/business/stories/realestate/04/16/0416appraisals.html

 

 

 

 

 

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Homeless RV Park planned for East Austin

April 15, 2008 · No Comments

Some of you may have read my letter to the editor in the  Austin American Stateman.  It was a condensed version of this letter I posted on the statesman blog.

http://denadavis.statesmanblogs.com

Let me just be clear– the city council passed this thing quicker than a “Bear Sterns Bailout”.  This was practically done under the cover of nightfall.  The only difference was that the council meeting was unexpectantly changed to a daytime meeting– where the  majority working  residents could not take off work to protest. 

At issue here is the complete lack of transparency by the Austin City Council.   Austin is a progressive city.  I applaud that.  I also applaud the fact that the city council is attempting to do something progressive about the homeless in Austin. 

What bothers me is that they are relocating them away from the newly minted wealthy downtown condo buyers and transfering them to the backyard of lower income working families that live close to Harold Court in East Austin.  All with very little notice.    Try doing that in Travis Heights.  Or close to Circle C.  Or Shady Hollow.

I am not against the homeless.  I am not against Mobile Loaves and Fishes.  The homeless is a community that needs to be served.  Mobile Loves and Fishes is a fine organization who did what they needed to do serve the homeless.  I take issue with the City Council and thier lack of regard for the input of a disadvantaged citizenry.

http://www.mlfnow.org/site/DocServer/Land_Design_Partners_Preliminary_Site_Plan_March_2008.pdf?docID=1841 

 

 

 

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$7,000 Tax credit to encourage buyers to buy foreclosures

April 13, 2008 · No Comments

Apparently, there is a bill before the senate (substitute amendment to H.R. 3221)    that would issue a $7,000 tax credit to those who purchase a home in foreclosure.  This is a $15 to $20 Billion Dollar package is more or less a down payment on what would become a housing bill costing hundreds of billions of dollars. 

The theory here is that the volume of foreclosure homes on the market is hurting the overall market.  As I mentioned in another post, it is estimated that for every foreclosure home in a neighborhood, neighborhood property values decline by 1.5%.

This is an effort to spur on the citizenry to take risks and absorb those units.  This sounds like a prime opportunity for investors. In a market like Austin, where there are relatively few foreclosures – one can hardly claim this is for the public good.  I can see where the tax credit could create an unfair advantage for the foreclosure home vs. the homeowner down the street just trying to sell his home. 

This bill also includes a bailout to builders to allow them to write off their 2008 and 2009 losses against the more profitable past 4 years.  How this helps the general public, I am not sure.  It sounds more like government taking care of big business.  Then of course, Cesar is going to throw the 600.00 tax rebate down to the peasants. That should keep them quiet.

I am wondering how this bill helps homeowners facing foreclosure at all. To read more about the bill http://www.opencongress.org/bill/upcoming/2-Housing-Stimulus-Package 

The purpose of this blog is to report on opportunities for investors interested in the Austin Market.  So whether or not this bail out is fair or not really isn’t the point.  There is clearly an opportunity for the Austin real estate investor to benefit from this bill — if it passes.

 

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Study shows that Austin can absorb downtown condo units.

March 16, 2008 · 1 Comment

A recent article in the Austin Business Journal reports that Austin can absorb the 4000 planned units that are the books for downtown Austin. 

For those of you who know me — I have been a real skeptic about the Austin Condo Market.  Our firm has sold exactly ZERO condos in Downtown Austin.  

 This new study commissioned by the owners of the Austonian by Economist Ray Perryman sites the fact that Austin is adding 40,000 new residents annually. In his study he says that rising energy and traffic costs will drive the downtown living market.  He may have a point there.  The city fathers never imagined the current growth levels that this city is experiencing.  Traffic problems will only get worse.  Today it may only take 20 minutes to get from South Austin to Downtown.  But in the next 5 years that drive time could potentially double. 

My husband and I moved to Austin from LA.  In the 10 years I was in LA— the traffic drive times doubled.  The real estate that was located close to the core of the city experienced the highest appreciation rates.

Click here to read the entire Austin Business Journal Article

 For those moving to Austin from places like LA and New York, the downtown condos offer a familiar lifestyle at a bargain price.  It is my understanding that those condos within a comfortable walking distance to Whole Foods Market are in higher demand.  It makes sense – those embracing the downtown lifestyle don’t want to spend their time driving around looking for a parking spot.

I still can’t bring myself to sell one of these units to an investor.  I think there are better parking spots for investor $$.  It would take a 50% downpayment for an investor to break even on a monthly basis on an premium downtown condo. 

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Percentage of investor home purchases at 17% in 2005 and 2006

March 14, 2008 · No Comments

I have always wondered what percentage of single family homes were aquired by investors.  I just heard fed Chairman Ben Bernanke say in a news briefing today that in the 1990’s non-owner occupied home loans were 5% of the total home loans.  In 2005 and 2006 — that number was 17%. 

Bernanke is talking about that national picture.  I am not sure how that number translates to our Austin Market.  If anyone knows what that percentage is — Please chime in!  I would imagine that we are about 10% or less in non-owner occupied loans. 

The problem is that investor loans come with more risk.  Borrowers are less likely to default on thier primary residence.  But on an investment property they are more likely to default.  When home prices fall below the loan value—  investors are more likely to default. 

Austin average sales prices were up 6.62% in February 2007 over February 2006.  The average sold price per sq. ft was up 4%.  So I dont think we are going to see the same foreclosure issues that the California and Florida are experiencing.   

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What does an impending Recession mean to the Austin Real Estate Investor?

March 11, 2008 · No Comments

On Friday - the jobs numbers came out.  The country lost over 67,000 jobs.  If it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck it’s a duck.  These economic numbers are definitely talking like a recession.  The jobs are walking out of the US to countries like India and China.  US companies are tightening their belt.

What is an Austin real estate investor to do?  Dump you dogs.

The Austin real estate market is still a good market.  We are moving into our best season– summer buying season.  Well located property will still fetch a premium.  If you have a property that you don’t want to own long term– sell it now.

I am not saying dump your Austin portfolio.  No — Austin real estate market is one of the safest markets in the country.  We don’t have the same kind of sub-prime mortgage issues that a lot of other markets face.  Only 8.3% of our mortgages were subprime.  But a recession could quell the demand for property.  Liquidity remains an ongoing concern. 

Those in strong cash positions will be positioned to take advantage of deals in the near future.  Banks are going to require that investor borrowers have larger cash reserves than they did a year ago.  So it’s not only a question of the source and seasoning (where it came from and how long you have had it on deposit) of your down payment – its a question of your financial stability.   A credit score of 680 or more won’t be enough — it will take 20% down plus greater cash reserves on hand.  It’s going to get tighter and tighter. 

 This is why you want to dump your dogs.  It will take a well positioned, seasoned investor to be able to go through bank underwriting in the future.  Those seasoned investors are going to be attracted to prime properties.  If you have a dog– dump it now. If you want to be poised to take advantage of reasonably priced prime property opportunities in the near future– you had better get your house in order now.  

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Where is the best place to invest in Austin Texas?

February 21, 2008 · No Comments

 It depends on what your goals are and how much you have to invest.  The city was developed from the central core of the city outward.  the central core of the city is downtown  austin. Home to the cities 2 largest employers Univerisity of Texas and Texas State Government.  It is also a cool, hip clean place to hang out. 

You have to understand land values.  I moved here from Los Angeles.  In the beach communites the beach front was the most desirable ( scarcest) real estate.  The property a few blocks from the beach isnt as value as beach front — but still in high demand.  The same is true for Austin Texas.  Think of downtown Austin as the “beachfront” of Austin. 

Just like California beachfront– you cant put a 20% downpayment on a downtown Austin Property and have a cash flow.  Why?? The appreciation of the rent prices has not kept pace with the appreciation of the property.   In fact, it is impossible to find a property west of I-35 and east of Mopac ( aka Loop 1) in the downtown area that will even break even with a 20% downpayment. 

About 3 years ago— as prices began to really escalte West of the I-35 — real estate entreprenurs began investing and rehabbing properties East of the I-35 close to downtown.  Zip code 78702.  Median family home prices in this area have risen by double digit rates.   

As those areas began to rise– the next area — to see the escalation was 78723 and the area immediately surrounding the Mueller Airport Redevelopment.   www.MuellerAustin.com

What is the signifance of Mueller to appreciation rates in East Austin?

Although the area is close to downtown and the central core of the city— it lacked retail and restaurants and services desired by professionals and the creative class.  With the opening of Mueller those retailers and services are available.  Dell Childrens hospital is a major anchor to the employment in the Mueller Redevelopment. 

I belive there is a tremendous opportunity for the appreciation in the following suddivisions:  University Hills, Vintage Hills, Preswick Hills.  A newly rehabbed property in one of these neighborhoods can run you 250K for a 3/2 with 1400 sq. ft.   That property will rent for about 1500.00 to 1600.00.    But this would be buying the most expensive house in the neighborhood. 

I suggest that you buy a home for about 179K to 189k that is in good condition– maybe something that needs some carpet and paint 1200 sq. ft.  That would buy you a 3/2 1200- 1400 sq ft.  That home would rent for approximately $1200- $1300.  Yes– I know — this wont cash flow with a 20% downpayment.  My suggestion is that you make a larger downpayment.  These are neighborhoods that are going to appreciate 10- 12% in the next year.  And very likely for the next 3 years.  You have to look at your return on investment.  If you would like to see a example spreadsheet for this type of investment — e-mail me at dena@investinaustin.com

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